The Red Sox are 9 games behind the Yankees as of today. Barring a scorching hot streak on our part, and a total meltdown by New York, it is reasonable to believe that we have a much better chance at getting into the playoffs via the wildcard. Home field advantage in the post season would be nice, but we might not have a choice anymore. Here are the wildcard standings as of now:
Team Record GB
Oakland 59-45 -
Texas 57-46 -
Boston 57-47 .5
Anaheim 57-48 1
Chicago 53-49 3.5
Oakland is actually in 1st place in the AL west, 1.5 games ahead of Texas, but that division is still a tossup. No one would be surprised if we were fighting with Oakland for the WC slot in late September. The general consensus is that Boston has been underachieving (because of injury, or bad luck, or anything...the point is, we were expecting a better record by this time of year), and that it is just a matter of time before we go on a hot streak to put away the wildcard. But what about the other WC contenders? Only Texas is performing above what was expected of them in the preseason. Any one of these teams could get hot, and if two do, the Red Sox could be in trouble. I'm looking at each of the 4 times Boston could be fighting with down the stretch, to see how they've been doing, and how they could do in the next two months. I'm ignoring NY and Minnesota, and assuming for now that they will both win their divisions.
Oakland
Offense:
The A's have an average offense, scoring 524 runs so far, good for 8th in the AL. Their strategy has been to get on base (.345 obp, 4th in the AL) and then to hit HRs (128 HRs, 5th in the AL). Their offense suffered a bit when Eric Chavez (.277/.406/.534 in 264 ABs) missed the entire month of June with a broken hand. He is the only all star caliber player in their lineup, but they have a lot of quality hitters: Mark Kotsay (.319/.379/.457 in 376 ABs), Jermaine Dye (.276/.336/..478 in 391 ABs), Scott Hatteberg (.289/.369/.443 in 336 ABs), Erubiel Durazo (.311/.382/.516 in 312 ABs), Eric Byrnes (.281/.347/.500 in 338 ABs) and Bobby Crosby (.268/.341/.469 in 354 ABs). The A's don't run (34 SBs, last in the AL), they don't sacrifice (12 sac hits, 13th, 28 sac flies, 8th). They take a lot of walks (385, 4th) and take a lot of strikeouts (686, 5th worst).
Starting Pitching:
Over the last several years, the A's have had the best starting pitching in baseball. It's still very strong this year, as Oakland leads the AL in era(4.05). Their top two pitchers, Tim Hudson (2.98 era, 1.24 whip, 52/25 k/bb in 109 IP) and Mark Mulder (3.43 era, 1.19 whip, 107/47 k/bb in 155 IP) have been excellent, though Tim Hudson hasn't played since June 22 due to a strained oblique (he is expected to make his first ML start since then on Thursday against NY). Oakland's 3/4/5 starters have been inconsistent. Barry Zito (4.81 era, 1.54 whip, 99/58 k/bb in 135 IP) has been nearly as bad for Oakland as Derek Lowe has been for us. Mark Redman (4.55 era, 1.50 whip, 68/46 k/bb in 129 IP) has also been disappointing, while Rich Harden (3.92 era, 1.35 whip, 111/59 k/bb in 119 IP) has looked pretty good over the last few weeks.
Bullpen and Defense:
Ever since June 24th when Oakland acquired closer Octavio Dotel (4.71 era, 1.29 whip, 34/8 k/bb, 8/10 saves) from Houston, the bullpen has done much better. Arthur Rhodes (5.28 era, 1.83 whip, 29/16 k/bb, 9/14 saves), the A's former closer, has not played since the trade (DL, strained back), and I'm sure no one over there minds. Having a stable closer has allowed the other members of the A's bullpen to operate more effectively: Jim Mecir (4.36 era, 1.45 whip, 35/17 k/bb), lefty Ricardo Rincon (4.13 era, 1.55 whip, 28/14 k/bb), Chad Bradford (4.86 era, 1.29 whip, 31/17 k/bb), Justin Duchscherer (2.81 era, 1.19 whip, 43/20 k/bb), Justin Lehr (5.30 era, 1.45 whip, 11/10 k/bb) and lefty Chris Hammond (4.30 era, 1.50 whip, 19/8 k/bb). The Oakland D sports the highest fielding percentage (.987) in the AL, as well as the highest range factor (38.02). Contrary to what I thought before looking it up, this is a very strong defensive team...they are 2nd in total chances (4038 ), yet have the fewest errors (54) in the AL.
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be do to strength of their starting pitching. Their offense, even without Chavez, has been strong all year, and since they acquired Dotel, their closer problem has been solved. If Tim Hudson returns healthy and in top form, and if Zito can solve his problems, this team again has 3 aces that can push them into the playoffs.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be do to inconsistency of their starting pitching. Hudson may not be completely healthy, and its entirely possible that Redman and Zito will not solve whatever problems they are having. It is also possible that Dotel, who prior to this season had never saved more than 16 games in one year, may falter down the stretch.
Oakland has 58 games left, 30 of them at home, 26 of them against possible playoff teams. Oakland has a history of finishing the season very strong, and I'd be surprised if they didn't win the AL west.
Texas
Offense:
The Rangers have a very strong offense, scoring 561 runs (4th) with an ops of .799 (3rd). Texas is second in the AL in HRs (155). The Rangers have the best infield in the American League, hands down: Mark Teixeira (.268/.356/.567 in 321 ABs) at 1B, Alfonso Soriano (.279/.322/.464 in 433 ABs) at 2B, Michael Young (.329/.372/.494 in 453 ABs) at SS and Hank Blalock (.283/.356/.529 in 414 ABs) at 3B. All 4 are young, and signed for at least another year, so so there is no reason to think that this offense is a fluke. They have several other decent hitters as well: Kevin Mench (.259/.307/.498 in 247 ABs), Laynce Nix (.271/.316/.516 in 192 ABs) and Eric Young (.326/.418/.405 in 190 ABs). Texas does not steal many bases (44, 11th), and they don't sacrifice (17 sac hits-12th, 30 sac flies-6th). Texas' walk (307, 12th) to strikeout (715, 3rd worst) ratio is terrible.
Starting Pitching:
This area has been the surprise of the season for Texas. Texas starting pitchers have been among the worst in the league the last few years, and while its not great this year (4.58 era, 9th), its shown significant improvement. Kenny Rogers (3.20 era, 1.35 whip, 79/34 k/bb in 137 IP) and Ryan Drese (3.62 era, 1.27 whip, 60/38 k/bb in 139 IP) have both been very solid for Texas all year. After those two, ELEVEN other Rangers have started, lead by R.A. Dickey (6.04 era, 1.70 whip, 45/31 k/bb in in 89 IP) and Joaquin Benoit (6.30 era, 1.41 whip, 72/21 k/bb in 80 IP). The Rangers took a big hit on July 22, when Ricardo Rodriguez (2.03 era, 1.50 whip, 15/12 k/bb in 27 IP) was hit on the elbow with a line drive, breaking it. He had been pitching great for them in his first four starts, and now he's gone for the year.
Bullpen and Defense:
Francisco Cordero (2.03 era, 1.17 whip, 49/20 k/bb, 31/33 saves)is the Texas closer, and he has performed better than anyone could have expected, especially after last year, when he had 25 save opportunities...and blew 10 of them. The Texas bullpen is balanced and has performed very well: Carlos Almanzar (3.51 era, 1.09 whip, 32/10 k/bb), Jeff Nelson (5.28 era, 1.50 whip, 13/11 k/bb), lefty Brian Shouse (3.28 era, 1.26 whip, 17/9 k/bb), lefty Ron Mahay (2.44 era, 1.29 whip, 37/19 k/bb) and Frank Francisco (3.82 era, 1.40 whip, 40/18 k/bb) have often been able to rescue the mediocre Ranger starters. The Rangers are a mediocre fielding team, with a .982 fielding percentage (8th) and a range factor of 37.15 (9th).
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Kenny Rogers and Ryan Drese have stepped up and assumed to mantle of the team aces. The bullpen, which thus far has overachieved, must keep up its pace if the Rangers are going to have a chance.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be due to Kenny Rogers steady decline, and the loss of Ricardo Rodriguez. After playing fairly well in April (4.26 era), May (2.20 era) and June (4.03 era), Rogers fell apart in July (7.52 era). The Rangers went just 13-14 in July, and that won't cut it if Rogers doesn't step up.
Texas has 59 games left, 33 of them at home, 31 of them against possible playoff teams. I don't think their starting pitching can hold up, but with their offense and number of games at home, they have a very good chance to take the wildcard.
Anaheim
Offense:
The Angel's offense appears to be middle of the road (535 runs-7th, .770 ops-8th), but that is misleading. Garrett Anderson (.318/.357/.441 in 236 ABs) and Troy Glaus (.296/.387/.694 in 108 ABs) are two of their top 4 hitters, and have both missed significant time. Anderson had arthritis in his upper back, and didn't play from April 22 to June 11th. Glaus had surgery on his right shoulder, and hasn't played since May 11th, and will probably miss the rest of the year. Darin Erstad (.297/.348/.402 in 276 ABs) and Tim Salmon (.242/.303/.318 in 157 ABs) have also missed time, but are healthy now. Meanwhile, Anaheim has been carried by Vladimir Guerrero (.333/.382/.578 in 403 ABs) and Jose Guillen (.308/.373/.531 in 386 ABs), with two speedy guys, Chone Figgins (.297/.357/.432 in 370 ABs) and David Eckstein (.305/.358/.359 in 351 ABs) at the top of the lineup. This is the anti-moneyball team; they don't walk at all (276, last in the AL), they steal bases (93, 2nd in the AL), and they sacrifice (42 sac hits-1st, 25 sac flies-13th). They don't walk, but they still get on base a lot (.341, 7th) due to being 1st in the AL in batting average (.285).
Starting Pitching:
The Angel starting pitchers, with the exception of Bartolo Colon (5.39 era, 1.44 whip, 97/47 k/bb in 130 IP), have done alright. Kelvim Escobar (4.37 era, 1.37 whip, 112/50 k/bb in 130 IP) and Jarrod Washburn (4.83 era, 1.35 whip, 62/28 k/bb in 114 IP) have had their ups and downs, while John Lackey (4.52 era, 1.28 whip, 31/14 k/bb in 127 IP) and Aaron Sele (4.66 era, 1.46 whip, 39/33 k/bb in 87 IP) have done alright at the back of the rotation. Ramon Ortiz (3.94 era, 1.28 whip, 58/27 k/bb in 80 IP) was absolutely terrible as a starter, lasting just 5 starts and giving up 22 ERs in 21 innings. He has since rebounded well as a reliever. In the 1st half, the big disappointment was the performance of Bartolo Colon, whose numbers were ugly(6.38 era, 1.54 whip, 76/34k/bb in 104 IP). Since the break, he has done very well (1.39 era, 1.08 whip, 21/13 k/bb in 26 IP).
Bullpen and Defense:
Longtime closer Troy Percival (3.68 era, 1.47 whip, 18/15 k/bb, 18/23 saves) has struggled a bit this year, but the rest of the bullpen has been excellent. Lead by Francisco Rodriguez (1.79 era, 1.03 whip, 84/20 k/bb), the bullpen has been the Angel's strength all year. Scott Shields (3.07 era, 1.17 whip, 81/27 k/bb), Kevin Gregg (3.58 era, 1.24 whip, 59/15 k/bb) and Brendan Donnely (3.57 era, 1.30 whip, 22/8 k/bb) are all quality relievers who average a strikeout or more per inning. Closer could be the only hole...Anaheim has tried Francisco Rodriguez in that role, and he blew 6 of his 13 save chances. An odd note, the bullpen doesn't have a single lefty...Washburn is the only lefty pitcher on the roster. Anaheim's defense does not make many errors (.984 FP, 4th in the AL), but they also don't have very much range (36.40 RF, 13th in the AL). The Angels have a lot of strikeout pitchers, so this lack of range isn't as important as it could be.
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Bartolo Colon continues to earn his big contract. At the beginning of July, I remember thinking that unless Anaheim traded for Randy Johnson, they were done. Since Colon's resurgence, that is no longer true, and if he keeps it up, the Angels have a chance. Health is also important, as they cannot afford to lose another starting bat.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be because Colon returned to his terrible pre all star form, and/or Percival continues to have his struggles. Everyone has assumed that should Percival play badly enough to lose his job, Rodriguez will step right in. He has done badly as a closer, and his hole in the bullpen would be felt.
Anaheim has 57 games left, 27 of them at home, 25 of them against possible playoff teams. I don't think Colon will keep it up, and the other Angel starters have been too on and off to be relied upon to win a big start. That said, they are healthy, and with their bullpen and offense, any big lead is safe, so they are still in it.
Chicago
Offense:
The White Sox offense has been good so far this year: 544 runs (6th) and a .798 ops (4th). However, Magglio Ordonez (.292/.351/.485 in 202 ABs) and Frank Thomas (.271/.434/.563 in 240 ABs), two of Chicago's top hitters, are out until late September at the earliest with injuries. Luckily for them, several Chicago players have greatly improved this year: Carlos Lee (.300/.364/.518 in 390 ABs), Paul Konerko (.290/.367/.557 in 352 ABs), Juan Uribe (.263/.318/.457 in 339 ABs), Jose Valentin (.229/.297/.502 in 315 ABs) and Aaron Rowand (.317/.365/.549 in 268 ABs) have all met or exceeded expectations. The White Sox are a group of sluggers(.460 slg, 3rd in the AL) who hit a lot of HRs (151, 3rd in the AL). They steal some bases (54, 7th) and do take walks (341, 6th). What Chicago does a lot of is sacrifice (39 sac hits-2nd, 26 sac flies-11th).
Starting Pitching:
The White Sox have made more moves in the last month than any other contender to shore up their starting pitching, acquiring the big prize, Freddy Garcia (3.35 era, 1.14 whip, 131/43 k/bb in 156 IP), from the Mariners. On Saturday, the Chisox parted with all star Esteban Loaiza (4.86 era, 1.43 whip, 83/45 k/bb in 141 IP) and got Jose Contreras (5.64 era, 1.41 whip, 82/42 k/bb in 96 IP). Contreras is a terrible pitcher against the Red Sox, but has been pretty good against the rest of the league, and does have amazing stuff. Away from the pressure of the Northeast, I think Contreras will thrive. He will probably be the 3rd starter, behind Garcia and Mark Buehrle (3.82 era, 1.27 whip, 110/30 k/bb in 158 IP). The 4 and 5 starters for Chicago, Jon Garland (4.59 era, 1.32 whip, 72/49 k/bb in 139 IP) and Scott Schoenweis (4.89 era, 1.49 whip, 68/47 k/bb in 110 IP) aren't the best, but aren't the worst either, and will keep them in a lot of games.
Bullpen and Defense:
Like the A's, Chicago's original closer, Billy Koch (5.40 era, 1.71 whip, 25/16 k/bb, 8/11 saves) struggled in that role. On June 17th, the White Sox traded Koch to the Marlins, and moved Shingo Takatsu (1.11 era, .81 whip, 29/12 k/bb, 9/9 saves) from the bullpen to the closer spot, and since then, Takatsu has been as good as any closer in the league. The rest of the bullpen is not nearly as strong: Cliff Politte (4.34 era, 1.45 whip, 33/19 k/bb), lefty Damaso Marte (3.17 era, 1.16 whip, 39/21 k/bb), Mike Jackson (4.89 era, 1.40 whip, 21/10 k/bb), lefty Neal Cotts (6.17 era, 1.37 whip, 30/19 k/bb) and Jon Adkins (3.41 era, 1.51 whip, 23/16 k/bb) make up an inconsistent bullpen that just doesn't get enough strikeouts. The Chicago defense is middle of the road in fielding percentage (.983, 6th in the AL) but has shown good range (37.61, 3rd in the AL).
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Contreras has lived up to his potential, giving the White Sox 3 great starters at the top of the rotation. The offense will also step up in the absence of Thomas and Ordonez and continue to be one of the best in the league.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be because the Chisox can't overcome the loss of their two greatest weapons, Contreras is unable to get over whatever his problem is, and the bullpen can't stablize itself.
Chicago has 60 games left, 30 of them at home, just 23 against possible playoff teams. I think Contreras will pitch better in Chicago than in New York, but it won't be enough to overcome the loss of two of the best hitters in the league. Chicago will be the first to drop out of the race.
Of all these teams, Anaheim scares me the most. I believe Oakland will surge into 1st in the AL west, and Texas (lack of pitching) and Chicago (lack of hitting) will fall before September. If Anaheim can put it together, their bullpen and small ball skills could win them the close games down the stretch.
Team Record GB
Oakland 59-45 -
Texas 57-46 -
Boston 57-47 .5
Anaheim 57-48 1
Chicago 53-49 3.5
Oakland is actually in 1st place in the AL west, 1.5 games ahead of Texas, but that division is still a tossup. No one would be surprised if we were fighting with Oakland for the WC slot in late September. The general consensus is that Boston has been underachieving (because of injury, or bad luck, or anything...the point is, we were expecting a better record by this time of year), and that it is just a matter of time before we go on a hot streak to put away the wildcard. But what about the other WC contenders? Only Texas is performing above what was expected of them in the preseason. Any one of these teams could get hot, and if two do, the Red Sox could be in trouble. I'm looking at each of the 4 times Boston could be fighting with down the stretch, to see how they've been doing, and how they could do in the next two months. I'm ignoring NY and Minnesota, and assuming for now that they will both win their divisions.
Oakland
Offense:
The A's have an average offense, scoring 524 runs so far, good for 8th in the AL. Their strategy has been to get on base (.345 obp, 4th in the AL) and then to hit HRs (128 HRs, 5th in the AL). Their offense suffered a bit when Eric Chavez (.277/.406/.534 in 264 ABs) missed the entire month of June with a broken hand. He is the only all star caliber player in their lineup, but they have a lot of quality hitters: Mark Kotsay (.319/.379/.457 in 376 ABs), Jermaine Dye (.276/.336/..478 in 391 ABs), Scott Hatteberg (.289/.369/.443 in 336 ABs), Erubiel Durazo (.311/.382/.516 in 312 ABs), Eric Byrnes (.281/.347/.500 in 338 ABs) and Bobby Crosby (.268/.341/.469 in 354 ABs). The A's don't run (34 SBs, last in the AL), they don't sacrifice (12 sac hits, 13th, 28 sac flies, 8th). They take a lot of walks (385, 4th) and take a lot of strikeouts (686, 5th worst).
Starting Pitching:
Over the last several years, the A's have had the best starting pitching in baseball. It's still very strong this year, as Oakland leads the AL in era(4.05). Their top two pitchers, Tim Hudson (2.98 era, 1.24 whip, 52/25 k/bb in 109 IP) and Mark Mulder (3.43 era, 1.19 whip, 107/47 k/bb in 155 IP) have been excellent, though Tim Hudson hasn't played since June 22 due to a strained oblique (he is expected to make his first ML start since then on Thursday against NY). Oakland's 3/4/5 starters have been inconsistent. Barry Zito (4.81 era, 1.54 whip, 99/58 k/bb in 135 IP) has been nearly as bad for Oakland as Derek Lowe has been for us. Mark Redman (4.55 era, 1.50 whip, 68/46 k/bb in 129 IP) has also been disappointing, while Rich Harden (3.92 era, 1.35 whip, 111/59 k/bb in 119 IP) has looked pretty good over the last few weeks.
Bullpen and Defense:
Ever since June 24th when Oakland acquired closer Octavio Dotel (4.71 era, 1.29 whip, 34/8 k/bb, 8/10 saves) from Houston, the bullpen has done much better. Arthur Rhodes (5.28 era, 1.83 whip, 29/16 k/bb, 9/14 saves), the A's former closer, has not played since the trade (DL, strained back), and I'm sure no one over there minds. Having a stable closer has allowed the other members of the A's bullpen to operate more effectively: Jim Mecir (4.36 era, 1.45 whip, 35/17 k/bb), lefty Ricardo Rincon (4.13 era, 1.55 whip, 28/14 k/bb), Chad Bradford (4.86 era, 1.29 whip, 31/17 k/bb), Justin Duchscherer (2.81 era, 1.19 whip, 43/20 k/bb), Justin Lehr (5.30 era, 1.45 whip, 11/10 k/bb) and lefty Chris Hammond (4.30 era, 1.50 whip, 19/8 k/bb). The Oakland D sports the highest fielding percentage (.987) in the AL, as well as the highest range factor (38.02). Contrary to what I thought before looking it up, this is a very strong defensive team...they are 2nd in total chances (4038 ), yet have the fewest errors (54) in the AL.
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be do to strength of their starting pitching. Their offense, even without Chavez, has been strong all year, and since they acquired Dotel, their closer problem has been solved. If Tim Hudson returns healthy and in top form, and if Zito can solve his problems, this team again has 3 aces that can push them into the playoffs.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be do to inconsistency of their starting pitching. Hudson may not be completely healthy, and its entirely possible that Redman and Zito will not solve whatever problems they are having. It is also possible that Dotel, who prior to this season had never saved more than 16 games in one year, may falter down the stretch.
Oakland has 58 games left, 30 of them at home, 26 of them against possible playoff teams. Oakland has a history of finishing the season very strong, and I'd be surprised if they didn't win the AL west.
Texas
Offense:
The Rangers have a very strong offense, scoring 561 runs (4th) with an ops of .799 (3rd). Texas is second in the AL in HRs (155). The Rangers have the best infield in the American League, hands down: Mark Teixeira (.268/.356/.567 in 321 ABs) at 1B, Alfonso Soriano (.279/.322/.464 in 433 ABs) at 2B, Michael Young (.329/.372/.494 in 453 ABs) at SS and Hank Blalock (.283/.356/.529 in 414 ABs) at 3B. All 4 are young, and signed for at least another year, so so there is no reason to think that this offense is a fluke. They have several other decent hitters as well: Kevin Mench (.259/.307/.498 in 247 ABs), Laynce Nix (.271/.316/.516 in 192 ABs) and Eric Young (.326/.418/.405 in 190 ABs). Texas does not steal many bases (44, 11th), and they don't sacrifice (17 sac hits-12th, 30 sac flies-6th). Texas' walk (307, 12th) to strikeout (715, 3rd worst) ratio is terrible.
Starting Pitching:
This area has been the surprise of the season for Texas. Texas starting pitchers have been among the worst in the league the last few years, and while its not great this year (4.58 era, 9th), its shown significant improvement. Kenny Rogers (3.20 era, 1.35 whip, 79/34 k/bb in 137 IP) and Ryan Drese (3.62 era, 1.27 whip, 60/38 k/bb in 139 IP) have both been very solid for Texas all year. After those two, ELEVEN other Rangers have started, lead by R.A. Dickey (6.04 era, 1.70 whip, 45/31 k/bb in in 89 IP) and Joaquin Benoit (6.30 era, 1.41 whip, 72/21 k/bb in 80 IP). The Rangers took a big hit on July 22, when Ricardo Rodriguez (2.03 era, 1.50 whip, 15/12 k/bb in 27 IP) was hit on the elbow with a line drive, breaking it. He had been pitching great for them in his first four starts, and now he's gone for the year.
Bullpen and Defense:
Francisco Cordero (2.03 era, 1.17 whip, 49/20 k/bb, 31/33 saves)is the Texas closer, and he has performed better than anyone could have expected, especially after last year, when he had 25 save opportunities...and blew 10 of them. The Texas bullpen is balanced and has performed very well: Carlos Almanzar (3.51 era, 1.09 whip, 32/10 k/bb), Jeff Nelson (5.28 era, 1.50 whip, 13/11 k/bb), lefty Brian Shouse (3.28 era, 1.26 whip, 17/9 k/bb), lefty Ron Mahay (2.44 era, 1.29 whip, 37/19 k/bb) and Frank Francisco (3.82 era, 1.40 whip, 40/18 k/bb) have often been able to rescue the mediocre Ranger starters. The Rangers are a mediocre fielding team, with a .982 fielding percentage (8th) and a range factor of 37.15 (9th).
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Kenny Rogers and Ryan Drese have stepped up and assumed to mantle of the team aces. The bullpen, which thus far has overachieved, must keep up its pace if the Rangers are going to have a chance.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be due to Kenny Rogers steady decline, and the loss of Ricardo Rodriguez. After playing fairly well in April (4.26 era), May (2.20 era) and June (4.03 era), Rogers fell apart in July (7.52 era). The Rangers went just 13-14 in July, and that won't cut it if Rogers doesn't step up.
Texas has 59 games left, 33 of them at home, 31 of them against possible playoff teams. I don't think their starting pitching can hold up, but with their offense and number of games at home, they have a very good chance to take the wildcard.
Anaheim
Offense:
The Angel's offense appears to be middle of the road (535 runs-7th, .770 ops-8th), but that is misleading. Garrett Anderson (.318/.357/.441 in 236 ABs) and Troy Glaus (.296/.387/.694 in 108 ABs) are two of their top 4 hitters, and have both missed significant time. Anderson had arthritis in his upper back, and didn't play from April 22 to June 11th. Glaus had surgery on his right shoulder, and hasn't played since May 11th, and will probably miss the rest of the year. Darin Erstad (.297/.348/.402 in 276 ABs) and Tim Salmon (.242/.303/.318 in 157 ABs) have also missed time, but are healthy now. Meanwhile, Anaheim has been carried by Vladimir Guerrero (.333/.382/.578 in 403 ABs) and Jose Guillen (.308/.373/.531 in 386 ABs), with two speedy guys, Chone Figgins (.297/.357/.432 in 370 ABs) and David Eckstein (.305/.358/.359 in 351 ABs) at the top of the lineup. This is the anti-moneyball team; they don't walk at all (276, last in the AL), they steal bases (93, 2nd in the AL), and they sacrifice (42 sac hits-1st, 25 sac flies-13th). They don't walk, but they still get on base a lot (.341, 7th) due to being 1st in the AL in batting average (.285).
Starting Pitching:
The Angel starting pitchers, with the exception of Bartolo Colon (5.39 era, 1.44 whip, 97/47 k/bb in 130 IP), have done alright. Kelvim Escobar (4.37 era, 1.37 whip, 112/50 k/bb in 130 IP) and Jarrod Washburn (4.83 era, 1.35 whip, 62/28 k/bb in 114 IP) have had their ups and downs, while John Lackey (4.52 era, 1.28 whip, 31/14 k/bb in 127 IP) and Aaron Sele (4.66 era, 1.46 whip, 39/33 k/bb in 87 IP) have done alright at the back of the rotation. Ramon Ortiz (3.94 era, 1.28 whip, 58/27 k/bb in 80 IP) was absolutely terrible as a starter, lasting just 5 starts and giving up 22 ERs in 21 innings. He has since rebounded well as a reliever. In the 1st half, the big disappointment was the performance of Bartolo Colon, whose numbers were ugly(6.38 era, 1.54 whip, 76/34k/bb in 104 IP). Since the break, he has done very well (1.39 era, 1.08 whip, 21/13 k/bb in 26 IP).
Bullpen and Defense:
Longtime closer Troy Percival (3.68 era, 1.47 whip, 18/15 k/bb, 18/23 saves) has struggled a bit this year, but the rest of the bullpen has been excellent. Lead by Francisco Rodriguez (1.79 era, 1.03 whip, 84/20 k/bb), the bullpen has been the Angel's strength all year. Scott Shields (3.07 era, 1.17 whip, 81/27 k/bb), Kevin Gregg (3.58 era, 1.24 whip, 59/15 k/bb) and Brendan Donnely (3.57 era, 1.30 whip, 22/8 k/bb) are all quality relievers who average a strikeout or more per inning. Closer could be the only hole...Anaheim has tried Francisco Rodriguez in that role, and he blew 6 of his 13 save chances. An odd note, the bullpen doesn't have a single lefty...Washburn is the only lefty pitcher on the roster. Anaheim's defense does not make many errors (.984 FP, 4th in the AL), but they also don't have very much range (36.40 RF, 13th in the AL). The Angels have a lot of strikeout pitchers, so this lack of range isn't as important as it could be.
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Bartolo Colon continues to earn his big contract. At the beginning of July, I remember thinking that unless Anaheim traded for Randy Johnson, they were done. Since Colon's resurgence, that is no longer true, and if he keeps it up, the Angels have a chance. Health is also important, as they cannot afford to lose another starting bat.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be because Colon returned to his terrible pre all star form, and/or Percival continues to have his struggles. Everyone has assumed that should Percival play badly enough to lose his job, Rodriguez will step right in. He has done badly as a closer, and his hole in the bullpen would be felt.
Anaheim has 57 games left, 27 of them at home, 25 of them against possible playoff teams. I don't think Colon will keep it up, and the other Angel starters have been too on and off to be relied upon to win a big start. That said, they are healthy, and with their bullpen and offense, any big lead is safe, so they are still in it.
Chicago
Offense:
The White Sox offense has been good so far this year: 544 runs (6th) and a .798 ops (4th). However, Magglio Ordonez (.292/.351/.485 in 202 ABs) and Frank Thomas (.271/.434/.563 in 240 ABs), two of Chicago's top hitters, are out until late September at the earliest with injuries. Luckily for them, several Chicago players have greatly improved this year: Carlos Lee (.300/.364/.518 in 390 ABs), Paul Konerko (.290/.367/.557 in 352 ABs), Juan Uribe (.263/.318/.457 in 339 ABs), Jose Valentin (.229/.297/.502 in 315 ABs) and Aaron Rowand (.317/.365/.549 in 268 ABs) have all met or exceeded expectations. The White Sox are a group of sluggers(.460 slg, 3rd in the AL) who hit a lot of HRs (151, 3rd in the AL). They steal some bases (54, 7th) and do take walks (341, 6th). What Chicago does a lot of is sacrifice (39 sac hits-2nd, 26 sac flies-11th).
Starting Pitching:
The White Sox have made more moves in the last month than any other contender to shore up their starting pitching, acquiring the big prize, Freddy Garcia (3.35 era, 1.14 whip, 131/43 k/bb in 156 IP), from the Mariners. On Saturday, the Chisox parted with all star Esteban Loaiza (4.86 era, 1.43 whip, 83/45 k/bb in 141 IP) and got Jose Contreras (5.64 era, 1.41 whip, 82/42 k/bb in 96 IP). Contreras is a terrible pitcher against the Red Sox, but has been pretty good against the rest of the league, and does have amazing stuff. Away from the pressure of the Northeast, I think Contreras will thrive. He will probably be the 3rd starter, behind Garcia and Mark Buehrle (3.82 era, 1.27 whip, 110/30 k/bb in 158 IP). The 4 and 5 starters for Chicago, Jon Garland (4.59 era, 1.32 whip, 72/49 k/bb in 139 IP) and Scott Schoenweis (4.89 era, 1.49 whip, 68/47 k/bb in 110 IP) aren't the best, but aren't the worst either, and will keep them in a lot of games.
Bullpen and Defense:
Like the A's, Chicago's original closer, Billy Koch (5.40 era, 1.71 whip, 25/16 k/bb, 8/11 saves) struggled in that role. On June 17th, the White Sox traded Koch to the Marlins, and moved Shingo Takatsu (1.11 era, .81 whip, 29/12 k/bb, 9/9 saves) from the bullpen to the closer spot, and since then, Takatsu has been as good as any closer in the league. The rest of the bullpen is not nearly as strong: Cliff Politte (4.34 era, 1.45 whip, 33/19 k/bb), lefty Damaso Marte (3.17 era, 1.16 whip, 39/21 k/bb), Mike Jackson (4.89 era, 1.40 whip, 21/10 k/bb), lefty Neal Cotts (6.17 era, 1.37 whip, 30/19 k/bb) and Jon Adkins (3.41 era, 1.51 whip, 23/16 k/bb) make up an inconsistent bullpen that just doesn't get enough strikeouts. The Chicago defense is middle of the road in fielding percentage (.983, 6th in the AL) but has shown good range (37.61, 3rd in the AL).
If they make the playoffs...
...it will be because Contreras has lived up to his potential, giving the White Sox 3 great starters at the top of the rotation. The offense will also step up in the absence of Thomas and Ordonez and continue to be one of the best in the league.
If they don't make the playoffs...
...it will be because the Chisox can't overcome the loss of their two greatest weapons, Contreras is unable to get over whatever his problem is, and the bullpen can't stablize itself.
Chicago has 60 games left, 30 of them at home, just 23 against possible playoff teams. I think Contreras will pitch better in Chicago than in New York, but it won't be enough to overcome the loss of two of the best hitters in the league. Chicago will be the first to drop out of the race.
Of all these teams, Anaheim scares me the most. I believe Oakland will surge into 1st in the AL west, and Texas (lack of pitching) and Chicago (lack of hitting) will fall before September. If Anaheim can put it together, their bullpen and small ball skills could win them the close games down the stretch.
